engineering house, debates about whether or not utilizing LLMs in coding is an effective or a nasty thought are raging. On the extremes, there are some individuals who assume that any use of LLMs in coding is indefensible, and different persons are able to throw out the entire area of software program engineering as too costly and pointless. I’m fascinated by this dialogue, notably from my sociologist’s perspective, as a result of a lot of the dialog appears to be about whether or not an LLM is beneficial. Is it so fatally flawed that it’s a complete waste of time, or is it so unimaginably highly effective that it’s a idiot’s errand to keep away from it? As an alternative of eager about it so narrowly, I truly actually need to speak in regards to the broader context of software program engineering within the context of LLM know-how. (I think about software program engineering solely adjoining to my area of machine studying engineering, however I’ve labored alongside many extraordinarily gifted SWEs in my profession, at tech firms of assorted sizes, and I’ve had the prospect to watch the function fairly intently. A few of the evaluation beneath additionally applies to the MLE area, however not all of it.)
Context
Throughout my very own profession I’ve seen rather a lot change within the American tech economic system, and in the best way the job of “coding” has been perceived and described. It’s a little bit of a trope but it surely was definitely true for a time frame that “studying to code” was touted because the quickest approach to a white collar profession with a gradual paycheck and future-proof prospects, each for younger individuals and for career-changers looking for a spot within the shifting economic system. Coding bootcamps got here and (largely) went, for a time giving individuals a comparatively fast approach to achieve the foundational abilities of the job.
In lots of fields, nevertheless, shortages of certified staff can swiftly flip right into a glut of expertise with nowhere to go (ask attorneys), particularly when excessive or at the least comfy salaries are on provide. Whereas some individuals assume that is occurring in software program engineering, it’s not clear if that’s essentially the case but, as a result of there are different components in play too. Within the mid-2010s, many tech firms and startups have been scrambling for hyper-growth and hiring as quick as attainable, utilizing low-cost enterprise capital to fund their expansions with out regard for profitability, however that’s definitively over now. Tech layoffs, together with many software program engineers, exploded within the years instantly following the beginning of the COVID pandemic, largely as a response to the unsustainable hiring of previous years and the sudden jolt to the economic system of lockdowns. After that interval of layoffs, hiring for SWE expertise slowed in lots of sectors. Developer skillsets are diversifying and specializing, so there should still be sub-fields with sturdy hiring, however a whole lot of younger SWEs specifically are struggling to interrupt in.
Junior vs Senior
This brings us round to now. Some individuals argue that there aren’t too many software program engineers, however there are too many inexperienced or junior software program engineers, and that employers are nonetheless determined for knowledgeable hires. What does that actually imply? Is it true? With out doing educational analysis to essentially examine (if anybody has executed good analysis on this query, please ship it to me!), we are able to nonetheless check out the problems concerned. First, let’s outline phrases.
I’m not utilizing anyone’s in-house leveling phrases, or speaking about job titles right here, however I need to make clear what the variations may be in somebody’s function relying on the expertise and abilities they bring about.
A junior SWE is somebody who wants fairly a little bit of assist, teaching, and managing to supply good high quality work. They’re not but at a spot of working independently or mentoring others. They’re nonetheless studying how the job is completed. This doesn’t imply they don’t produce worth! Junior engineers do write code and get work executed, and so they can typically be taught in a short time and change into extra productive. Nonetheless, a senior SWE is somebody who could be anticipated to work largely independently, with minimal supervision required for good work to be executed and objectives to be met, and they are often relied on to assist these junior people alongside. They begin to have the ability to remedy tougher issues, write elegant code that is top of the range, and even start being a part of technique conversations about the right way to construct your entire codebase for the lengthy haul.
This is kind of the sample for many expert professions — you’ll be taught some quantity of what it is advisable know from education or coaching, however you actually discover ways to be a member of the career and do the job from expertise and follow. There’s no set rule about how a lot time it takes so that you can go from junior to senior on this framework, as a result of it’s all about what you are able to do and the capabilities you might have. Your perceived worth as a employee (and your pay) go up as you get higher on the job over time.
LLMs Enter Stage Left
With this, we are able to begin to inquire about how that shifts, and the way the existence of LLMs and LLM based mostly coding instruments truly might (to make use of a cliche) disrupt the context of the career now.
As a person, when you’re a senior SWE, you may discover an LLM device like Github Copilot or Cursor helpful for doing scut work, corresponding to getting unit exams working, writing fundamental docs, or sketching out the beginning of a undertaking that you simply’ll then fill in based mostly by yourself data. Nonetheless, your individual data is actually very important for this to be efficient. As we in machine studying will let you know, LLM output is probabilistic at its core. If the coaching information has many examples of code which are related to what you’re doing, it’s going to be fairly more likely to produce code for you that works. However ultimately (in all probability sooner) it’s going to generate one thing that received’t work. That may be failing loudly or failing silently, it may be opening up a safety gap, or it’d simply be a suboptimal means of doing a process. The factor that issues at that time is what you do in response.
Assuming you’re a senior SWE with important expertise writing all these things by hand your self, you might have the talents to identify the errors, and work out the right way to repair them easily so the tip product works effectively. The LLM in all probability makes you extra productive in the long run, since you may summary away a few of the work that isn’t attention-grabbing and doesn’t require a lot thought. In case you’re not a senior particular person, effectively, then you might find yourself going again to the LLM to ask it to repair its personal errors. And it’d do this, however there’s at all times a danger of one other mistake being launched, and on down the street. There’s actually no telling how lengthy this might take, and it’s exhausting to check the time with how lengthy it might have taken you to be taught the underlying code and simply remedy it your self.
Nonetheless, numerous individuals will argue that the LLM repeating workflow is okay. Folks might imagine that simply being there to click on the hover button to inform Copilot to “Repair” time and again is adequate, even when it’s not a very satisfying job. Nonetheless, there are critical arguments to be made that the output might be significantly flawed, whether or not in readability, maintainability, safety holes, or different facets.
“Certain, Gen AI supercharges growth, but it surely additionally supercharges danger. Two engineers can now churn out the identical quantity of insecure, unmaintainable code as 50 engineers.” — https://www.zdnet.com/article/10-professional-developers-on-vibe-codings-true-promise-and-peril/
This query has been addressed by many writers lately. Nonetheless, I’m much less at this second in whether or not Copilot can get to the specified consequence ultimately than I’m in what this course of and means of working does to us.
Broaden the Aperture
Keep in mind that we’re right here to speak in regards to the impact of the LLM on the career. Within the pre-AI period, a junior engineer would begin engaged on a ticket, and make some errors, introduce a bug or two, and so they’d principally be armed with StackOverflow and the docs, plus friends to collaborate with for assist, to determine the right way to get it proper. As soon as they muddled by way of and received the code working, they’d make a PR and get suggestions from extra skilled friends, who would provide suggestions and corrections. As soon as these corrections have been made, a PR could possibly be accepted and merged.
I believe the “muddling by way of” a part of this course of is definitely pedagogically and professionally fairly necessary. When you’ve handed by way of the tutorial preparation for the software program engineering function, the sensible preparation is what it is advisable develop the capabilities to develop. I’m a robust believer in the concept that making errors and fixing them is a tremendously beneficial approach to be taught. As soon as the junior dev engaged on that little bit of code has labored exhausting, mounted their very own bugs, written the exams and docs, and gone by way of PR evaluation, they know that little bit of code higher than another particular person round. That course of is the productive cognitive labor that brings them a step nearer to being an engineer who can work independently, and tackle extra senior obligations efficiently.
On Being Environment friendly
Nonetheless, from the skin, this course of appears to be like gradual. It appears to be like like that they had to spend so much of time flailing round to simply get to the tip results of code that works, and absolutely it might be extra environment friendly to both simply make an LLM do it, or make a senior dev do it?
If effectivity is your solely standards, then certain, perhaps that is true. However I need to push again strongly on the premise. We do numerous issues with out eager about broader context or impression, particularly within the tech trade, and prioritizing effectivity in the present day in any respect prices is a recipe for future catastrophe. Let’s spin out the narrative a bit — if effectivity is the precedence, both we have now an LLM do the majority of the work, or a senior dev does it, or perhaps a little bit of each, like an LLM does the primary stab and a senior dev opinions it. Setting apart any questions of high quality (about which there must be questions), what’s the function of a junior SWE on this house?
Does a junior SWE watch the LLM do a lot of the coding? Do they only exist as an observer? Do they click on “okay” every now and then because the LLM goes alongside, exemplifying “vibe coding”? Or do they not exist in any respect on this situation? Loud voices within the AI house definitely are arguing that they disappear altogether. In that case, within the fast second, employers in tech save a big sum of money on salaries, so inventory worth goes up.
The concept of vibe coding is utilizing an LLM based mostly device to jot down the code in your undertaking, with minimal precise hand-writing of code concerned. The title comes from the precept that you simply behind the keyboard have a common sense of the “vibe” of what you need your consequence to be, however you both don’t know the right way to do it your self or don’t need to do it your self, so that you’re outsourcing the cognitive work of coding to a pc. You’ll simply describe the broad strokes of what you need, in human language, and let the LLM work out a approach to obtain that by way of code.
Hollowing
Nonetheless, we all know {that a} wholesome career must be bringing in new expertise as senior workers progress and ultimately retire. Senior engineers are nonetheless being wanted, as a result of they’ll remedy the issues and write the advanced code that neither junior devs nor LLMs can produce. Their expertise and abilities are undeniably beneficial and essential to good software program being produced. However the place do we predict senior engineers come from? Identical to senior medical doctors, or senior attorneys, they begin out as junior individuals. Their capabilities have to be acquired by way of expertise.
If we construct a working surroundings the place junior software program engineers now not exist, we’re hollowing out the pipeline of expertise the career wants. As an alternative of getting a funnel of expertise from educational research into the sphere, younger individuals haven’t any actual approach to get to the extent of expertise that’s in highest demand.
Conclusions
I recognize readers coming together with me on this dialogue, as a result of it’s necessary to consider the know-how we make ubiquitous not simply from our personal particular person views however from a broader view. How we make use of LLM know-how within the area of software program engineering may have a critical impression on the way forward for the career and what it appears to be like like — and, I’d argue, that is true for a lot of different fields as effectively the place incorporating LLMs is turning into trendy. I’m not arguing for zero LLM utilization in coding, by any means — it may be extremely helpful when you’ve got the expertise and abilities to take advantage of it. (There are a lot of necessary conversations to have about the way it might impression our talent ranges and the upkeep of our abilities, however that’s a special subject for an additional day.)
However in any career, senior practitioners don’t simply seem — they’re created, and that technique of creation takes work and time, and will not be essentially the most instantly “environment friendly” factor to do. Effectivity within the fast second simply isn’t crucial factor — it will possibly’t be, if we would like the longer term to be vibrant.
I’m talking at two occasions in July 2025, together with a free digital convention referred to as “Brokers in Manufacturing” — please enroll when you’re !
Learn extra of my work at www.stephaniekirmer.com.
Additional Studying
AI Killed My Job: Tech employees
Tech employees at TikTok, Google, and throughout the trade share tales about how AI is altering, ruining, or changing…www.bloodinthemachine.com
10 skilled builders on vibe coding’s true promise and peril
Is vibe coding the way forward for software program or a safety nightmare in disguise? Right here’s what skilled builders assume…www.zdnet.com
Frontiers | Some Proof on the Cognitive Advantages of Studying to Code
Please see the submitted information.www.frontiersin.org
Trusting your individual judgement on ‘AI’ is a big danger
Net dev on the finish of the world, from Hveragerði, Icelandwww.baldurbjarnason.com
Jones, Capers. 2014. The Technical and Social Historical past of Software program Engineering.
Layoffs.fyi — Tech Layoff Tracker and DOGE Layoff Tracker
LIVE] Monitoring all tech startup layoffs — and lists of staff laid off — since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic…layoffs.fyi
