Being seen as dependable is nice for ‘enterprise’ and ransomware teams care about ‘model fame’ simply as a lot as their victims
11 Dec 2025
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4 min. learn
Black Hat Europe 2025 opened with a presentation by Max Smeets of Digital Rotes titled ‘Contained in the Ransomware Machine’. The discuss targeted on the LockBit ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) gang and Max’s analysis into their practices and operations. At their top, between 2022-2024, the group had 194 associates, of which 110 had managed to get a cyberattack to the purpose of negotiation, with 80 of the associates succeeding in getting paid by the ransomware group. (As a reminder, the enterprise mannequin of ransomware is layered: ‘affiliate’ refers back to the group that researches the sufferer’s networks and identifies and exfiltrates the delicate information to a ransomware gang, resembling LockBit.)
Fame is all the pieces
A key message delivered by Max was relating to fame, each of the sufferer and the ransomware group. The sufferer firm must uphold their fame with their prospects and any trace of an information breach can considerably harm it. Apparently, the analysis confirmed that media protection is larger for the businesses that pay as opposed to people who don’t pay the extortion demand and face longer disruption. The presenter’s view is that the information story turns into concerning the fee and probably provides the indication the sufferer firm has misplaced management and wanted to pay, producing mistrust and harm to their model.
As somebody who has been near the topic for a number of years, I disagree with this view, at the very least in some circumstances. From a purely monetary perspective, paying the demand may very well be the more cost effective answer, and there are numerous examples the place the ultimate prices of a cyber-incident for people who don’t pay are a number of instances increased than people who do pay – simply assume again to the assaults on Caesers Palace and MGM. Firms have a accountability to shareholders and in some circumstances the best and quickest methodology to recuperate the enterprise and turn into absolutely operational could also be to pay the ransomware extortion demand.
In the meantime, restoration of programs might be advanced, new {hardware} must be acquired, and backups have to be restored and analyzed to make sure they’re clear. The ransomware decryption key unlocking the enterprise in hours somewhat than days can reduce enterprise disruption and lack of income. Then additionally issue within the affect of an insurance coverage underwriter, who too will wish to reduce their prices and take the trail that minimizes any declare which may be made by the sufferer firm.
After all, each instant and long-term downsides are simply as apparent. The fee might purchase time and lower the invoice – till it would not. For starters, there isn’t any assure that the decryption key will truly unlock the information. As well as, the victims that comply with ransom calls for could also be seen by attackers as price concentrating on once more and, in the end, they could additionally inadvertently validate and reinforce ransomware as a viable ‘enterprise mannequin’.
The ransomware operators are additionally involved about fame – they have to be seen as reliable and to be recognized for upholding their finish of any deal. When large quantities of delicate information is exfiltrated and held to ransom, in addition to inner programs encrypted and acquired to a standstill, any negotiation to unlock programs and make sure the safety of the information must be from a belief standpoint.
If the negotiator has heard unfavourable critiques on the ransomware group not offering decryptors or holding onto information, they could advise the sufferer to not pay. It’s necessary that when handing over the extortion fee the ransomware group delivers precisely as anticipated, offering the service they’re being paid for in an expert method. The actual problem for any ransomware group isn’t that of community entry or the exfiltration of knowledge however somewhat whether or not the sufferer trusts them sufficient to pay the extortion demand.
Apparently, the operations by regulation enforcement to take down LockBit in 2024 additionally included a marketing campaign to destroy belief within the gang, publicly stating that the gang goes not delete exfiltrated information however maintain on to it. This mistrust marketing campaign may very well be sufficient for associates to take their alternatives and enterprise to a different group.
What units the value
My takeaway from the presentation was not one thing the presenter said outright – it’s concerning the information and reconnaissance the affiliate conducts concerning the firm. There was a quick point out of the analysis and shifting round an organization community in search of delicate information, together with monetary information that will point out willingness to pay or an quantity that may be acceptable.
This prompted a lightbulb second: essentially the most precious doc to a cybercriminal may very well be the schedule detailing the corporate’s cyber insurance coverage protection. Understanding whether or not the corporate has insurance coverage that features paying an extortion demand and what the extent of protection is gives the cybercriminal the data on the place to set the extortion demand, in order that the danger turns into a monetary concern not for the corporate, however for the insurer.
The takeaway is that the cyber insurance coverage coverage and all communication relating to the coverage needs to be segmented with further safety, or fully air-gapped from the corporate community.
